Prof. Adauto de Aquino - The Econimist * Brazilian Real Falls to Two-Week Low as Greece Saps Risk Demand - Bloomberg
Você se lembra deste post que coloquei no dia 31 de dezembro de 2014 do Financial times:
Política Fiscal MUITO austera e Política Monetária MORNA?
31-Dec-2014
Um segmento da matéria:
Late on Tuesday, Brazil’s central bank also announced it would halve its vast currency intervention programme designed to prop up the weakening real, pleasing economists who have called on the government to loosen its grip over the foreign exchange market.
The bank said in a statement it would only sell as much as $100m of currency swaps — derivatives that mimic currency sales — in daily auctions until at least the end of March, down from the $200m it currently offers.
O Banco Central do Brasil declara reduzir pela metade a intervenção no swap cambial e se destaca a satisfação dos economistas pró mercado de câmbio. Aparece expressa a redução de R$200 milhões para R$100 milhoes de swaps cambiais
Pois hoje a história continua... Nessa matéria de Filipe Pacheco para a Bloomberg temos o impacto no Brasil da expectativa quanto a saída da Grécia do Mercado Comum Europeu, mas não é somente isso.
Observe que Pacheco reforça a crise que o Brasil enfrenta, e que deve aumentar, pela transferência de dólares para os Estados Unidos em função do aquecimento de sua economia.
Mas, conforme a matéria que postei no dia 31 de dezembro de 2014, destaca o aspecto menos agressivo do Bacen no mercado monetário, uma política morna.
Conforme Ipek Ozkardeskaya : "Os volumes de swap mais baixos diminuem a capacidade de intervenção do BC para temperar as volatilidades indesejadas e empurrar os investidores para uma nova onda de vendas real."
Analistas apontam para o aumento da inflação enquanto que o governo brasileiro, conforme declaração da presidenta Dilma Rousseff declara ,durante a cerimônia de posse para o seu segundo mandato em 1º de janeiro, que ela vai apertar o orçamento do Brasil, aumentar o investimento e aumentar a produtividade, em um esforço para reavivar o crescimento econômico, minimizando os "sacrifícios" por parte da população.
Enquanto isso o risco de investir no Brasil aumenta.
Brazilian Real Falls to Two-Week Low as Greece Saps Risk Demand
By Filipe Pacheco Jan 5, 2015 12:36 PM GMT-0200
Brazil’s real dropped to a two-week low as speculation Greece will abandon the euro sank demand for emerging-market assets.
The real fell 0.6 percent to 2.7116 per dollar at 11:53 a.m. in Sao Paulo, the weakest level on a closing basis since Dec. 17. Swap rates, a gauge of expectations for changes in borrowing costs, decreased 0.06 percentage point to 12.85 percent on the contract maturing in January 2016.
The Brazilian currency joined a selloff in emerging-market counterparts after Der Spiegel magazine reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is ready to accept a Greek exit from the euro. Brazil’s central bank said last week it will offer as much as $100 million a day in currency swaps to support the real until at least March 31, compared with $200 million last year.
“The risk-off and flight to the U.S. dollar is the main driver of the foreign-exchange markets today, which will likely keep the appetite limited for the emerging-market currencies,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a strategist at Swissquote Bank SA in Gland, Switzerland, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “Lower swap volumes decrease the BCB’s intervention capacity to temper the undesired volatilities and push investors toward a further real selloff.”
One-month implied volatility on options for the real, reflecting projected shifts in the exchange rate, remained the highest among 16 major currencies after Norway’s krone.
Greece began an election campaign that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said may lead to an exit from the euro region should the opposition party win. The European currency weakened to an almost nine-year low versus the dollar.
Swap Auction
Brazil’s central bank said last week the swap auction measures are designed to allow hedging and inject liquidity into the currency market, with additional dollars provided as needed. Brazil sold the equivalent of $98.2 million of swaps today.
Analysts raised their 2015 inflation estimate to 6.56 percent from 6.53 percent, according to the median of about 100 estimates in a central bank survey published today. The official target is 4.5 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The analysts cut their economic growth forecast to 0.50 percent from 0.55 percent.
President Dilma Rousseff said during the swearing-in ceremony for her second term on Jan. 1 that she will tighten Brazil’s budget, increase investment and raise productivity in an effort to revive economic growth while minimizing “sacrifices” by the population.
Standard & Poor’s lowered the nation’s credit rating in March to one level above junk, citing a slowdown in economic growth and deteriorating fiscal accounts. In September, Moody’s Investors Service changed its outlook to negative on the nation’s Baa2 rating, the second-lowest investment grade.
fonte: The Economist
Professor Adauto de Aquino
www.adautodeaquiosf@uol.com.br